Antalya can become a “new Kahramanmarash” (the city where today's earthquake occurred). With such an alarming forecast, the president of the branch of the Chamber of Geological Engineers (JMO), geophysicist Bayram Ali Celtik, spoke in the Turkish media. He also warned that Istanbul could also be at risk of a seismic strike.
The expert recalls that today the force of the tremors reached 7.8 points, and this is a huge energy – and assured that no less intense earthquake could hit the cities that are more popular with tourists. “At the moment, the earthquake has shaken the cities of Kahramanmarash, Kilis, Diyarbakir, Adana, Osmaniye, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Adiyaman, Malatya and Hatay. But there is a risk that next time Istanbul or Antalya will be under attack. And a possible earthquake in our region could be stronger,” he said, also adding that since both Istanbul and Antalya are densely populated provinces, the consequences could be much more serious and catastrophic.
The expert explained it this way: the epicenter of the earthquake falls on the left-hand strike-slip Pazardzhik segment of the East Anatolian fault, 82 km long. “All earthquake data points to tremors associated with the strike-slip system of the East Anatolian Fault. Moreover, even aftershocks have a huge magnitude of 6.6,” the specialist said. And this is not the only earthquake-prone fault in Turkey, he added. “There is a fault line in Northern Anatolia that starts from the Gulf of Saros and extends through the Sea of Marmara. This is one of the fastest moving and most active dextral shear faults in the world. This is a fault that could cause the expected Istanbul earthquake. The other is the line of the East Anatolian fault with a length of about 300 kilometers,” said the geophysicist.
N.B. By the way, you can see a map of tectonic faults in Turkey in the article “Where will it hit next time in 2023: a map of seismically dangerous regions of Turkey has been published.”
At the same time, the expert added that the fault lines “do not have been moving” for 500 years – but things can change. “In fact, it could be a seismic rupture. We are in danger – because the shocks can continue – and cause destruction at a distance of at least 100 km, as well as new strikes at vulnerable points. A new Kahramanmaras may happen in Antalya. “The risks are huge,” the geophysicist assures.
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